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Arbitrage calculator

Split one stake across every outcome of a market.

An arbitrage splits a stake so the return is the same whichever outcome wins, as long as every bet stands at these prices. If the implied total is 1 or more, there is no arbitrage at these prices.

Calculations run entirely in your browser; no data is saved.

The return is the same whichever outcome wins, as long as every bet stands at these prices.

Implied total0.9524
Unrounded return105.00
Worst return after rounding105.00 on 100.00 staked
Outcome 150.00 (unrounded 50.00)
Outcome 250.00 (unrounded 50.00)

A matched return can fail if a price is a palpable error, a bet is void, the books settle the market differently, a price moves before you are filled, or an account is limited.

Formula

Effective odds = 1 + (odds − 1) × (1 − commission). Stake on an outcome = total × (1 ÷ effective odds) ÷ sum of those inverses.

Worked example

2.10 / 2.10 and a stake of 100 splits 50 / 50 and returns 105.00 either way. 2.60 / 3.60 / 3.90 returns 108.84 before rounding.

FAQ

Does an arbitrage remove risk?

No. The matched return assumes every bet is accepted and settled on the same terms. Palpable errors, voids, different settlement rules, price changes and limits can break it. See why bookmakers limit winners.

What does exchange commission do?

Commission reduces the effective odds to 1 + (odds − 1) × (1 − commission) before the stakes are split.

Why can rounding change the result?

Stakes are rounded to the step you choose. The calculator then shows the worst return across the outcomes at those rounded stakes.

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