Pinnacle TerminalPoisson calculator for football scores
Expected goals in, score chances out. Independence is assumed.
The Poisson calculator turns a home and away expected-goals figure into scoreline chances. Home and away goals are treated as independent. There is no Dixon-Coles correction for low scores.
Goals are treated as independent. There is no Dixon-Coles adjustment. Calculations run entirely in your browser; no data is saved.
| Market | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 46.42% | 2.154 |
| Draw | 25.77% | 3.881 |
| Away | 27.81% | 3.596 |
| Over 2.5 | 48.16% | 2.077 |
| Both teams to score | 51.83% | 1.929 |
Formula
P(k goals) = λ^k × e^(−λ) ÷ k!. A scoreline is the product of the two teams' probabilities.
Worked example
Expected goals 1.50 and 1.10 give home 46.42%, draw 25.77%, away 27.81% and over 2.5 goals 48.16%.
FAQ
Where do the expected goals come from?
From your own model or a published projection. This page does not estimate them.
What does the model leave out?
It assumes the teams score independently, which is weakest for low scores. It also stops at 10 goals per team.
Are the fair odds a betting recommendation?
No. Fair odds here are 1 divided by the model probability. They are only as good as the expected goals you entered.
Related
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