BetMGM Dropping Odds – Does BetMGM Follow Pinnacle?

BetMGM dropping odds are BetMGM prices that shorten. On the Premier League, BetMGM follows most of Pinnacle's drops, but it leaves more room than the other books we measured before it does: its earlier price was above Pinnacle's fair close on 80 of 101 drops, with a median gap of +4.91%, the largest of seven books. The sample is 210 matches from 2025/26 in the football-data.co.uk file.

Key Takeaways

• Data: football-data.co.uk Premier League 2025/26 file, 210 matches from 15 August 2025 to 8 January 2026 with complete Pinnacle and BetMGM prices (and the other books in the tables), downloaded 10 November 2026.
• Of 101 selections Pinnacle shortened by 5% or more, BetMGM also shortened 85 (84.2%), and its earlier price was above Pinnacle's fair close on 80 (79.2%), median gap +4.91%.
• BetMGM's earlier price was the highest of the seven soft books on 47 of those 101 drops (ties included).
• Its closing price was still above Pinnacle's fair close on 13 of the 101 drops, and on 43 of all 630 selections (6.8%).
• Median 1X2 margin: BetMGM 4.17% before the close and 4.21% at the close, the second lowest of the seven books after Betfred. Pinnacle's: 3.48% and 2.87%.

Definition. A BetMGM dropping odd is a BetMGM price that is shorter now than at an earlier reference point, such as the opening price. It records that BetMGM changed its price; it does not say who moved first or whether the new price is fair.

What are BetMGM dropping odds?

They are BetMGM prices that have fallen since an earlier point. For a bettor who uses Pinnacle as the reference, the useful question is narrower: after Pinnacle shortens a price, is BetMGM still offering something longer than Pinnacle's new fair price? That gap is the opportunity, and it closes when BetMGM updates. The general idea is in what dropping odds are.

One caution before the numbers: football-data.co.uk lists the column as "BetMGM" and does not say which BetMGM site the prices come from. Prices in your state or country can differ. Treat this as a test of one price feed on one league, and repeat it on your own account.

How much of a Pinnacle drop does BetMGM follow?

Most of it, but it leaves more room than the others before it does. BetMGM also shortened 85 of 101 Pinnacle drops of 5% or more, and on 62 it moved by less than Pinnacle. Its earlier price was above the fair close on 79% of those drops; by the close that was down to 13.

We used the two snapshots in the football-data.co.uk file: a pre-closing price collected on Friday afternoon for weekend games and Tuesday afternoon for midweek games, and the closing price. Fair prices come from Pinnacle's closing 1X2 with the margin removed by the power method.

BetMGM had the largest earlier gap on every measure in the second and third rows. On 62 of the 101 drops its earlier price was at least 3% above the fair close. The two snapshots do not show how many minutes BetMGM took to update; public timing data exists only for bet365 and 1xBet, in bet365 dropping odds and 1xBet dropping odds.

By selection, the gap was largest on home wins: on all 17 home-win drops BetMGM's earlier price was above the fair close (median +7.91%), against 37 of 44 away wins (+5.11%) and 26 of 40 draws (+3.05%).

One caution: we picked these 101 selections after seeing that Pinnacle shortened them. The median gap shows how much room BetMGM's earlier price left against the fair close; it is not something you could have known on the Friday.

How big is BetMGM's margin compared with Pinnacle?

About 0.7 points above Pinnacle before the close and 1.3 points above at the close. BetMGM's median Premier League 1X2 margin was 4.17% before the close and 4.21% at the close, against 3.48% and 2.87% at Pinnacle. Only Betfred was lower among the soft books we measured.

Match by match, BetMGM's margin was wider at the close in 114 of 210 matches, narrower in 94 and unchanged in 2. A lower margin is one reason its prices sit above Pinnacle's fair price more often than bet365's or Coral's. Still compare against the fair price with the devig calculator, not against Pinnacle's quoted price.

Does BetMGM copy another bookmaker's prices?

Not on this data. BetMGM's closing price matched another book's on 12% to 20% of 630 selections, the lowest overlap in our sample. Coral, Ladbrokes and bwin, by contrast, matched each other on about two-thirds of prices, as shown in Coral dropping odds.

For line shopping, a book that prices on its own is a separate chance that one of your accounts is still slow when Pinnacle moves. See line shopping.

A real example: Tottenham v Burnley

Premier League, 16 August 2025, 15:00. From the football-data.co.uk file:

Pinnacle shortened Burnley by 23.8%. BetMGM's earlier 9.00 was 26.4% above Pinnacle's fair close (9.00 ÷ 7.118 − 1). By the close BetMGM had cut to 6.50, 8.7% below fair. Tottenham won 3–0, so the bet lost. The result does not change whether 9.00 was a good price; the closing fair price is the measure. How that works: closing line value guide.

Big gaps like this one are mostly on longer prices, where a few ticks are a large percentage. They are also where margins and limits are least forgiving.

Do BetMGM prices drop on their own?

Sometimes. BetMGM shortened 132 selections by 5% or more between the two snapshots. On 11 of them Pinnacle's price moved by less than 1%, and on another 14 Pinnacle's price lengthened by 1% or more. A drop at a soft book with no matching move at the sharp book is weaker evidence; see sharp vs public odds drops.

How do you use BetMGM with Pinnacle's prices?

1. When Pinnacle shortens a price, devig the whole Pinnacle market to get the fair price.
2. Check BetMGM's price on the same market, line and period, and compare it with the fair price in the EV calculator.
3. Bet only if BetMGM's price is above the fair price, and only with a bookmaker licensed where you live.
4. Log the bet and check it later against Pinnacle's fair close with the CLV calculator.

What should you watch out for at BetMGM?

• Other markets and sports. These figures are Premier League 1X2 only. Margins on other leagues, markets and US sports can be different; check them with the margin calculator.
• Account restrictions. Soft books can restrict customers who keep beating the close: why bookmakers limit winners.
• One season, one league, one feed. 210 matches is a useful sample, not a permanent property of BetMGM. Repeat the test on the leagues you bet: soft bookmakers list.

How Pinnacle Terminal handles this

Pinnacle Terminal shows Pinnacle's prices and maximum market limits as they move; it does not show BetMGM's prices and does not take bets. BetMGM is not in its bookmaker league filter, so you compare BetMGM's price with the fair price yourself. Every pre-match move is graded 0–10 and labelled (Big move, Sharp drop at about 20% or more below the recent high, Limit-backed, Downtrend, Rebound, Standard), with the fair price (Power by default) on each private Telegram alert. In-play, football drops are shown live and filtered by match context, not graded. See the Pinnacle dropping odds page.

FAQ

Does BetMGM follow Pinnacle's odds?

Mostly. On 210 Premier League matches from 2025/26, BetMGM also shortened 84.2% of the selections Pinnacle shortened by 5% or more. Its earlier price was above Pinnacle's fair close on 80 of those 101, the most of the seven books we measured.

What is BetMGM's margin on football?

The median Premier League 1X2 margin was 4.17% before the close and 4.21% at the close on our sample, against 3.48% and 2.87% at Pinnacle.

Is BetMGM better than bet365 for dropping odds?

On this sample, yes: BetMGM's earlier price left a larger median gap against the fair close (+4.91% against +2.40%) and its closing price was above fair on 13 drops against 4. Your own leagues and account limits can change that.

Sources

• football-data.co.uk, Premier League 2025/26 results and odds file (E0.csv) and notes.txt (BMGM = BetMGM, BFD = Betfred, B365 = bet365, BV = BetVictor, BW = bwin, CL = Coral, LB = Ladbrokes), downloaded 10 November 2026. Our calculation: 210 matches with complete Pinnacle and bookmaker pre-closing and closing 1X2 prices; fair prices by the power method.
• Pinnacle Terminal, soft bookmakers list, for the books the league filter supports.

Try it

Get Pinnacle's moves graded 0–10, with the fair price on each alert to compare with BetMGM: start the Pinnacle Terminal 7-day free trial. One plan, €89 a month or €229 a quarter. Card required; nothing is charged before day 8, and you can cancel from Manage subscription in the app. See pricing for the plans.

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