Paddy Power Odds: Does Paddy Power Follow Dropping Odds? (2026/27 Data)

Paddy Power follows sharp drops more often than any of the six bookmakers we tested, and its prices are almost never above fair by kick-off. On 638 English and Scottish league matches of 2026/27, Paddy Power also shortened 96.1% of the selections the Betfair Exchange shortened by 5% or more, and its closing price was above the exchange's fair close on just 2 of 1,914 selections. Unlike most books, its median 1X2 margin got wider into the close: 7.01% on the pre-closing snapshot, 7.68% at kick-off.

Key Takeaways

• Data: football-data.co.uk 2026/27 files for the Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two and Scottish Premiership, downloaded 11 November 2026. 638 matches from 31 July to 8 November 2026 with complete prices for Paddy Power, five other books and the Betfair Exchange.
• The 2026/27 files have no Pinnacle columns, so the sharp reference is the Betfair Exchange closing price with the margin removed (power method).
• Of 311 selections the exchange shortened by 5% or more, Paddy Power also shortened 299 (96.1%), the highest share of the six books. Its earlier price was above the fair close on 222 (71.4%), median gap +2.10%.
• Paddy Power's closing price was above the fair close on 1 of those 311 drops and on 2 of all 1,914 selections (0.1%), the fewest of the six.
• Its median 1X2 margin widened from 7.01% to 7.68% and was wider at the close in 487 of 638 matches (76.3%).
• Paddy Power shortened 455 selections by 5% or more on its own prices. On 86 of them (18.9%) the exchange price was flat or got longer.

Definition. Paddy Power dropping odds are Paddy Power prices that are shorter now than at an earlier reference point, such as the opening price or a Friday snapshot. A drop says Paddy Power changed its price; it does not say who moved first or whether the new price is fair.

What are Paddy Power dropping odds?

They are Paddy Power prices that have fallen since an earlier point. If you use a sharp price as your reference, the useful question is narrower: after the sharp market shortens a selection, is Paddy Power still offering more than the new fair price? That gap is the opportunity, and it closes when Paddy Power updates. The general idea is in what dropping odds are.

Why is the benchmark the Betfair Exchange, not Pinnacle?

Because the 2026/27 football-data.co.uk files no longer include Pinnacle. They added Paddy Power (column PP) and Sky Bet this season. The Betfair Exchange is the other common sharp reference: a market between customers with a low overround. Its median closing overround on these 638 matches was 0.79%.

So this page measures Paddy Power against the exchange's closing price with the margin removed. Our older bookmaker guides, such as bet365 dropping odds, used Pinnacle's close on 2025/26 data, so the two sets of figures are not directly comparable. How the two references differ is in Pinnacle vs Betfair Exchange.

How much of a sharp drop does Paddy Power follow?

Nearly all of it. Paddy Power shortened 299 of the 311 selections the exchange cut by 5% or more, more than any other book in the sample. Before it moved, though, its earlier price was above the exchange's fair close on 71.4% of those drops, with a median gap of +2.10%.

We used the two snapshots in the football-data.co.uk files: a pre-closing price collected on Friday afternoon for weekend games and Tuesday afternoon for midweek games, and the closing price. Fair prices come from the exchange's closing 1X2 with the margin removed by the power method.

Paddy Power's earlier price was the highest of the six books on 97 of the 311 drops (ties included). By selection, the gap was largest on home wins (median +2.99%, above fair on 105 of 131), then away wins (+2.21%, 94 of 133), and slightly negative on draws (−0.21%, 23 of 47).

One caution: we picked these 311 selections after seeing that the exchange shortened them. The gap shows how much room Paddy Power's earlier price left against the fair close; you could not have known it on the Friday. The two snapshots also do not show how many minutes Paddy Power took to move.

Why does Paddy Power's margin get wider before kick-off?

Because it shortens prices more than the market does. Paddy Power's median 1X2 margin was 7.01% on the pre-closing snapshot and 7.68% at the close. It was wider at the close in 487 of 638 matches, narrower in 135 and unchanged in 16. Sky Bet went the other way (8.33% to 7.11%), and bet365, Betfred, BetVictor and bwin moved by 0.12 points or less.

The widening shows in every league except the Premier League, where Paddy Power's margin was lowest and almost flat:

For scale: Pinnacle's own 1X2 margins for the ten Premier League matches of 21–23 November 2026, read from its public odds feed at 09:35 UTC on 11 November, ran from 3.69% to 4.13% (median 3.93%). Those are early prices, ten days before kick-off, so treat the comparison as a rough scale, not a like-for-like test. Check any market yourself with the margin calculator.

What this means for you: on this sample, Paddy Power's Friday price is where the room is. By kick-off it has usually cut the selection the sharp market backed, and the extra margin sits on the closing book.

Does Paddy Power drop prices on its own?

More often than Sky Bet. Paddy Power shortened 455 selections by 5% or more between the two snapshots. On 41 of them the exchange price moved by less than 1%, and on 45 the exchange price got longer by 1% or more: 86 drops (18.9%) with no matching move at the sharp reference. Sky Bet had 29 such drops out of 325 (8.9%).

A drop at a soft book with no matching move at the sharp reference is weak evidence of informed money. It can simply be the book's own trading, for example on a selection it has taken a lot of money on. A tracker that averages soft books can count those as drops too. See sharp vs public odds drops.

A real example: Sunderland v Chelsea

Premier League, 8 November 2026, 14:00. From the football-data.co.uk file:

The exchange shortened Sunderland by 21.3%. Paddy Power's earlier 3.75 was 18.0% above the fair close (3.75 ÷ 3.177 − 1). By the close Paddy Power had cut to 3.00, 5.6% below fair. The earlier price was the one worth having; the closing one was not. How to measure that over many bets: closing line value guide.

Does Paddy Power copy Sky Bet's prices?

Partly. Paddy Power's closing price was identical to Sky Bet's on 783 of 1,914 selections (40.9%), and 39.6% on the earlier snapshot. With BetVictor it was 31.8% at the close, Betfred 25.3%, bet365 23.9% and bwin 20.6%. We did not check who supplies either book's prices, so we only report the overlap. For line shopping, a high overlap means two accounts often give you one chance, not two: see line shopping and Sky Bet dropping odds.

How do you use Paddy Power with a sharp price?

1. When the sharp market shortens a price, remove the margin from the whole market to get the fair price. The devig calculator does it.
2. Check Paddy Power's price on the same market, line and period, and compare it with the fair price in the EV calculator.
3. Bet only if Paddy Power's price is above the fair price, and only where Paddy Power is licensed for you.
4. Log the bet and check it later against the fair close with the CLV calculator.

What should you watch out for at Paddy Power?

• Other markets. These figures are 1X2 only. Totals, handicaps and props can behave differently.
• Account restrictions. Soft books can restrict customers who keep beating the close: why bookmakers limit winners.
• Three months, five leagues, two snapshots. 638 matches is a useful sample, not a permanent property of Paddy Power. Repeat the test on the leagues you bet: soft bookmakers list.

How Pinnacle Terminal handles this

Pinnacle Terminal shows Pinnacle's prices and maximum market limits as they move; it does not show Paddy Power's prices or the Betfair Exchange, and it does not take bets. Paddy Power is not in its bookmaker league filter, so you compare Paddy Power's price with the fair price yourself. Every pre-match move is graded 0–10 and labelled (Big move, Sharp drop at about 20% or more below the recent high, Limit-backed, Downtrend, Rebound, Standard), with the fair price (Power by default) on each private Telegram alert. In-play, football drops are shown live and filtered by match context, not graded. See the Pinnacle dropping odds page.

FAQ

Does Paddy Power follow dropping odds?

Yes, on this sample more than any other book we tested. On 638 English and Scottish league matches of 2026/27, Paddy Power also shortened 96.1% of the selections the Betfair Exchange shortened by 5% or more, and its closing price was above the exchange's fair close on only 1 of them.

What is Paddy Power's margin on football?

The median 1X2 margin on our sample was 7.01% on the Friday or Tuesday snapshot and 7.68% at the close. It was lowest on the Premier League (6.90% at the close) and highest on the Scottish Premiership (7.93%).

Is Paddy Power a sharp bookmaker?

No. Its median closing margin of 7.68% is nearly ten times the exchange's 0.79%, and on this sample it shortened almost every selection the exchange shortened. It is a soft book; use a sharp price as the reference and Paddy Power as a place to compare prices.

Are Paddy Power and Sky Bet prices the same?

Often. Their closing prices matched exactly on 40.9% of selections in our sample, the highest overlap of any pair we checked with Paddy Power.

When is Paddy Power most likely to be above the fair price?

On the earlier price, before the sharp market has moved and Paddy Power has followed. By kick-off its price was above fair on 0.1% of selections.

Sources

• football-data.co.uk, 2026/27 results and odds files E0 (Premier League), E1 (Championship), E2 (League One), E3 (League Two) and SC0 (Scottish Premiership), and notes.txt, downloaded 11 November 2026. Columns used: PP (Paddy Power), SKB (Sky Bet), B365 (bet365), BFD (Betfred), BV (BetVictor), BW (bwin), BFE (Betfair Exchange), with C for closing. Our calculation: 638 matches with complete pre-closing and closing 1X2 prices for all seven; fair prices by the power method.
• Pinnacle public odds feed, Premier League, read 11 November 2026 at 09:35 UTC: 1X2 prices for the matches of 21–23 November 2026. Margins are our own calculation.

Try it

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